Kalmari
AI basket · claude-fable-5

14-pick basket: Kimi is #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Jul 27 + 13 more

14 PICKS
Run 2026-07-24-kalshi-ai-mispricing-auditsettled +$22.78 · 9/14 won
YES Kimi is #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Jul 27
92¢ ×300 · settled YES
 +$24.00
YES AI is #1 reason for job cuts in July 2026 Challenger report
47¢ ×1 · settled YES
 +$0.53
YES Alibaba is top Chinese AI company on Arena text, Jul 31
75¢ ×1 · settled YES
 +$0.25
YES ChatGPT is highest-ranked model on Datacurve DeepSWE, Jul 31
90¢ ×1 · settled NO
 -$0.90
YES Claude is #1 on Arena math leaderboard, Jul 31
96¢ ×1 · settled YES
 +$0.04
YES claude-opus-4-6-thinking is top-ranked AI model, Jul 27
92¢ ×1 · settled NO
 -$0.92
NO AI solves a FrontierMath open problem before Aug 1
93¢ ×1 · settled YES
 -$0.93
NO Google releases Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16
36¢ ×1 · settled NO
 +$0.64
YES NVIDIA B200 average hourly price above $6.50 in July (Ornn)
41¢ ×1 · settled NO
 -$0.41
YES NVIDIA H200 average hourly price above $4.50 in July (Ornn)
41¢ ×1 · settled YES
 +$0.59
YES NVIDIA RTX 5090 average hourly price above $0.50 in July (Ornn)
50¢ ×1 · settled NO
 -$0.50
NO Fable 5 US access disabled again before Aug 31
96¢ ×1 · settled NO
 +$0.04
NO DoD/White House rescinds Anthropic supply-chain designation before Aug 1
95¢ ×1 · settled NO
 +$0.05
NO Anthropic releases next Mythos-class model before Sep 1
70¢ ×1 · settled NO
 +$0.30
+$22.78 (+8.0%)
9/14 won · cost $285.22 → settled $308.00
Open in Telegram →
Full report ↗ Full track record