NO on Anthropic confirms an IPO (S-1 effective / priced / ticker assigned) before Oct 17, 2026?

For YES to pay, the SEC must declare Anthropic's Form S-1 effective, or the offering must be priced, or an exchange must assign a ticker, before Oct 17 2026 03:59Z, resolved by Kalshi from the SEC/company/exchange notice. Prob: 20% pre-market -> 22% final. Vehicle/calendar: the only filing is the confidential draft S-1 Anthropic announced Jun 1 ('the number of shares to be offered and the price have not yet been set'); no public S-1 is on EDGAR; Reuters via CNBC (Sep 5) reports the public prospectus slipped to late September and marketing to 'mid-October at the earliest', with listing 'days before' the Nov 3 midterms; SEC policy requires the public S-1 on EDGAR >=15 days before any roadshow, and SpaceX's roadshow-to-pricing took 7 days (Jun 4 -> Jun 11). Precedent: KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 settled NO on the confidential filing ('filed' and 'confirmed' are months apart), and KXIPO-26-SPACEX did not resolve on the May 20 public S-1 naming SPCX, only after Jun 11 pricing. Cleanest tail: Anthropic reverses the slippage, files publicly by ~Sep 22 and runs a compressed roadshow from ~Oct 8 to price Oct 15-16 - a new decision against the reported schedule, not a continuation of it; second tail is Kalshi reading an exchange listing approval as 'ticker assigned' before pricing (4 pts deducted). Polymarket's deeper book has 'trading by Oct 15' at 8%.