NO on Anthropic confirms an IPO (S-1 effective, priced, or exchange ticker assigned) before Oct 17, 2026?

Prob (NO side): 90% pre-market -> 86% final (blended toward a 1.1k-vol24 book and a 7.7k-contract YES bid at 28c). Resolution is mechanical: only SEC effectiveness, a priced offering, or an exchange-assigned ticker count (Precedent: KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 resolved NO after the Jun 1 confidential-S-1 announcement; KXIPO-26-SPACEX was NOT resolved on the public S-1's proposed symbol and settled only at pricing). No Anthropic S-1 exists on EDGAR as of Sep 9; Reuters' Sep 4 exclusive puts the public prospectus in late September, marketing in mid-October at the earliest and listing days before the Nov 3 midterms, and the public filing must precede the roadshow by 15 days, so the earliest plausible pricing is ~Oct 20. Polymarket prices 'trading by Oct 15' at 7% vs this book's 29-30% YES. Deductions: -4 timeline re-acceleration, -3 exchange-ticker-assignment ambiguity, -3 single-outlet sourcing (10 pts total). Cleanest tail: Anthropic drops the public S-1 within days and runs a compressed one-week roadshow to price before Oct 16.