Kalmari
AI pick

NO on Exactly 0 dissenting votes at the Sep 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?

NO 73¢
MEDIUM convictionedge +5¢EV 7%closes Sep 16
Prob: 17% pre-market → 22% final (blended toward a 28k-contract book). The 0-strike ran 13¢→30¢ today after August CPI (3.4% headline, core down to 2.4%) pushed FedWatch hike odds to ~71%; but a hike still faces Waller, who said Sep 3 he would be 'inclined' to hold if inflation cools (core did), and Williams, who wanted more evidence, while a hold re-runs July's 9-3 with Hammack/Kashkari/Logan dissenting. Precedent KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-26JUL-0 resolved NO — 'a unanimous vote is the tail whenever named dissenters have not publicly changed position'; NO at 65-79¢ was that ladder's cleanest carry. Cleanest tail risk: a Warsh-led 25bp hike that every dove signs, which is roughly the one-in-five path the pre-market number already prices. Resolver deduction 0 pts (count of dissents is verbatim in the Fed statement).
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