NO on US diesel export ban in effect before Nov 3, 2026?

For YES to pay, the US government must impose a ban on diesel exports that takes effect after Sep 21 and before Nov 3, 2026, and a Source Agency must report it. Prob: 18% pre-market -> 18% final (Kalshi mid 23%). Vehicle: none. Politico's Sep 23 90-day plan was denied by a White House official ('This is not true'); Energy Secretary Wright said 'nobody was considering a flat ban' and called refiners Sep 24 about voluntary restraint; Sen. Cruz relayed White House assurances to refiners on Sep 26 (Bloomberg); Semafor (Sep 24) reports a ban would need an emergency declaration plus an executive order under contested authority; API/AFPM/Chamber/Business Roundtable oppose. The only YES driver is Trump personally ('I've called for it' Sep 22; 'thinking about it very seriously' Fox, Sep 27), which reads as leverage for voluntary export cuts that would not resolve YES. Cleanest tail: Trump overrules Wright and signs an order directing Commerce to impose a 90-day ban effective before Nov 3 - a new discrete event, priced at ~15 pts; resolver risk that a partial/destination-limited restriction is reported as a 'ban', ~3 pts.