YES on Fed holds rates (0bp) at the July 29, 2026 meeting

HOLD fell from ~91c (Jun 16) to ~76c (Jun 19) on the hawkish June dot plot AND the wartime energy spike. As of Jun 24 crude is back below $70 (-40% from peak), Hormuz is reopening and US-Iran talks are advancing — removing the main inflation impulse behind a July hike — yet HOLD still sits ~76-78c and did not move on today's crash. Cleanest tail: a hot June CPI (Jul 14) or hawkish Chair Warsh forcing a July hike regardless of oil.