NO on Alito announces departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026

The term-end window passed with a flat SCOTUS denial, and justices rarely announce in July recess (O'Connor 2005 is the lone modern precedent). Market implies 14-15% in 30 days; base rate plus live insider chatter supports ~8%. Tail risk: the chatter is real — conservative-media sources claim a genuine announcement may still be coming this summer.