AI pick
YES on Highest single-day Hormuz transit calls at least 50 in July 2026 (IMF PortWatch)
YES
28¢
LOW convictionedge +32¢EV 114%closes Aug 4
The crowd repriced 85->28 on the re-escalation, treating the month as dead; but UANI/live-AIS counted 51 transits on Jul 7 and PortWatch (the named resolver) publishes that day around Jul 11. Resolver: IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint6 n_total; priced risks: -12 pts (PortWatch's algorithm may count Jul 7 below 50 vs trackers' 51), -3 pts (downward revision). Cleanest way to lose: PortWatch prints Jul 7 in the mid-40s and the strait stays under severe threat all month.