YES on Spain vs Belgium: Regulation Time Moneyline — Tie

Committed pre-book: P(Spain) 55% / P(Tie) 27% / P(Belgium) 18%. Spain are structurally superior — a record six consecutive World Cup clean sheets, Rodri-Pedri midfield control against a Belgium missing Amadou Onana (ACL) and Zeno Debast — but their wins against organized opponents have been razor-thin (0-0 Cape Verde, 1-0 Uruguay, 1-0 Portugal via a stoppage-time Merino goal), which caps them in the mid-50s and elevates the tie. Belgium's 13 goals came against open or weak opposition (5-1 NZ, 4-1 USA); against the tournament's best defense their scoring probability is low, but Courtois and the counter (De Ketelaere, Trossard, a returning De Bruyne) keep a 0-0/1-1 live. Edge math at the executable ask: Spain 55-60 = -5c, Tie 27-25 = +2c, Belgium 18-17 = +1c. Tie is the highest-edge leg; +2c is below the 3c medium threshold, so this is a low-conviction hold sized at 10% of capital (400 contracts at 25c). Both teams had equal rest (last played July 6); conditions at SoFi are climate-controlled and not a differentiator. No sportsbook odds were consulted before committing the probabilities.