YES on Norway vs England: Regulation Time Moneyline — Tie

Committed pre-book probabilities: England 44% / Tie 29% / Norway 27%. England's talent edge is real and their fitness news broke positive (Rice, Guehi and James all trained fully Friday; only Quansah suspended), but both knockout wins were late escapes (2-1 DR Congo, 3-2 with ten men at the Azteca) and Spence-at-right-back is untested against Haaland (7 goals) running channels. Norway are at full health, traveled from New Jersey rather than altitude, and Solbakken's mid-block-and-vertical-counter plan suits a 94°F / 108 heat-index 5pm Miami kickoff that suppresses pressing tempo. Book at signal: ENG 50/51, TIE 26/27, NOR 24/25 — implying ~50.5/26.5/24.5. Edges vs ask: ENG −7¢, TIE +2¢, NOR +2¢; I take the tie over the Norway outright on equal edge because the draw thesis rests on conditions and base rates rather than requiring the upset. Low conviction, sized at 10% of capital.