YES on Argentina vs Switzerland: Regulation Time Moneyline — Tie

Committed pre-book probabilities: Argentina 52% / Tie 31% / Switzerland 17%. Yakin confirmed Johan Manzambi (3 goals, 2 assists — their entire creative output) misses out with a knee injury; without him Switzerland produced 2 shots on target in 120 minutes against Colombia and advanced on penalties, which is precisely the profile of a side playing for 0-0 through regulation. Their defensive spine (Kobel, Akanji, Elvedi, Xhaka, Zakaria) is genuinely strong. Argentina are healthy but have needed extra time and a 90th-minute comeback in consecutive rounds, and the heavy-favorite-vs-organized-bunker matchup historically inflates regulation draws well past intuition. Book at signal: ARG 57/58, TIE 26/27, SUI 15/16 — implying ~57.5/26.5/15.5. Edges vs ask: ARG −6¢, TIE +4¢, SUI +1¢. Sportsbook odds surfaced during research (~55/27/18 devigged) but my numbers were committed independently before reading any book. Medium conviction, sized at 20% of capital.