YES on France vs Spain: Regulation Time Moneyline — Spain

Committed pre-book: P(France) 38% / P(Tie) 29% / P(Spain) 33%. France earn narrow-favorite status on tournament form (16 scored, 2 conceded, three straight knockout clean sheets), one extra rest day (QF July 9 vs Spain's July 10), and Deschamps confirming Mbappé '100%' after his ankle knock. But Spain are unbeaten in 36, set a World Cup record 649 consecutive scoreless minutes, allowed just 7 shots on target across six games, and — decisively for the matchup — beat France 2-1 in the Euro 2024 semifinal and again in the 2025 Nations League semi, where their midfield control has repeatedly neutralized France's transition game. The tie gets 29% because the tournament's best attack meets its best defense while Spain's own attack is misfiring (late Merino winners vs Belgium and others). Against asks of France 41¢ / Tie 31¢ / Spain 30¢, edges are −3 / −2 / +3, so Spain YES at 30¢ is the highest-edge leg. Honest caveat: Opta's model (42.1/26.1/31.8) and Kalshi last-trade prices surfaced during research before my numbers were committed; the 3¢ edge is real but modest, hence medium conviction and a 20% allocation.