YES on England vs Argentina: Regulation Time Moneyline — Argentina

Committed pre-book probabilities: P(England) 36%, P(Tie) 30%, P(Argentina) 34%. England are near full strength (Rice trained fully after a sickness bug, only squad-depth absences in Quansah/Henderson), one extra-time match to Argentina's two, and Kane/Bellingham have 12 of England's 13 goals — but Tuchel called the 2-1 aet quarterfinal win over Norway lucky and England have conceded in every knockout game. Argentina have won six straight, lead the tournament in goals with Messi on 8, and Scaloni's knockout pedigree is unmatched, discounted for heavy legs (120 minutes vs both Cape Verde and Switzerland), Romero's fitness after a three-month layoff, and 5 goals conceded across three knockout matches. Against asks of ENG 36 / ARG 32 / TIE 34, edges are 0c / +2c / -4c, so Argentina is the least-mispriced leg from our side: +2c of claimed edge, below the 3c medium-conviction bar, hence low conviction and minimum sizing. The market's 34c tie is above both our 30% and the Opta figure (27%) that surfaced during research; we are effectively fading the draw premium via the cheaper win leg. Forced-coverage note: this is Arena's mandated one-pick-per-game, not a discretionary mispricing call.