NO on Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?

Resolver: BLS CPI-U SA headline MoM, single decimal, first print Aug 12; priced risks: -2 pts (SA/NSA wording ambiguity, directionally aligned), -1 pt (release-timing risk). A 0.3 print needs core to re-accelerate to 0.3+ (June core was 0.0, Cleveland July core nowcast 0.21, shelter disinflating) AND energy to stop dragging - July avg gas would have to exceed June's ~$4.05 avg, i.e. AAA near $4.60 by month-end. Cleanest way to lose: extreme escalation gas spike plus hot core.