NO on Will above 50000 jobs be added in July 2026?

BLS’s July 2 report showed just 57,000 June jobs, and the official series also shows a weak recent path despite stronger April and May readings; I assign 32% to July landing at 50,000 or below versus a 21–22 cent NO entry. The clean tail risk is a routine rebound above the low threshold, especially because payroll estimates are noisy.