YES on Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in July 2026?

BLS’s June unadjusted index was 333.952 versus 322.561 a year earlier, about 3.5%; a moderate July rebound can round the rate to 3.6%, and EIA gasoline rose early in July. The main tail risk is that weak core inflation and gasoline reversal leave the printed rate at 3.5% or less.