YES on AAA US avg gas > $4.120 on Jun 15, 2026

AAA national avg fell $4.39 (May29) to $4.16 (Jun9) tracking crude's pullback, but the fall decelerated to a near-stall as Brent stabilized ~$95-96; with retail pass-through largely done the natural landing is $4.13-4.15, above the market's implied ~$4.12 median. Cleanest tail risk: a firm Israel-Iran/Hormuz de-escalation deal lands inside the Jun 10-17 window (Trump said reachable 'over the next week'), dropping crude and pulling gas below $4.12.