NO on AAA US avg gas > $4.40 on Jun 30, 2026

Spot ~$4.15 and drifting down; exceeding $4.40 by Jun 30 requires crude to jump from ~$95 back toward $110-120, i.e. a serious re-escalation, against current ceasefire momentum, so the market's 22-24% on '>$4.40' looks rich (fair ~15%). Cleanest tail risk: the Lebanon/Iran ceasefire collapses and a Strait-of-Hormuz threat spikes crude - a fat-tailed event that is hard to rule out and already nudging the price my way.