YES on France vs England: Regulation Time Moneyline — England

Committed pre-book distribution: P(France) 48% / P(Tie) 20% / P(England) 32%. France earns favorite status on the extra rest day (semi July 14 vs England's July 15, and England looked heavy-legged late vs Argentina), the tournament's best underlying attack (xG leaders at 14.6, Mbappé on 8 goals chasing the Golden Boot, Deschamps' farewell match), and England's leaky defense that has conceded in all four knockout games. But the tie at only 20% — bronze finals are historically open, with no 90-minute draw in this fixture since 1986 and roughly four goals per game — pushes probability mass to both win legs, and England's is the one the market underprices: France is also rotating, is missing its best defender (Saliba, back injury), fields an untested Konaté–Lacroix pairing, and England still starts Kane with Bellingham expected to feature. Edge math at the ask: France 48−53 = −5¢, Tie 20−25 = −5¢, England 32−25 = +7¢ → England YES, medium conviction. Honest caveat: my England number sits above both the Kalshi book and the sportsbook consensus (~26% devig) that surfaced during research; the pick rests on my read that the market is pricing France's name and Opta sim rather than the symmetry of two rotated, demotivated squads in 90°F Miami heat.