YES on Spain vs Argentina: Regulation Time Moneyline — Argentina

Committed pre-book probabilities: P(Spain) 38% / P(Tie) 32% / P(Argentina) 30%. Spain has been the tournament's best team on underlying numbers — one goal conceded in seven games, all wins in regulation including 2-0 over France — and has an extra rest day, which is why they lead my distribution. But their knockout wins were all narrow (1-0 Portugal, 2-1 Belgium, 2-0 France), and two elite defensive sides meeting in ~89°F RealFeel afternoon heat pushes the regulation draw to near-co-favorite; 5 of the last 8 World Cup finals were level after 90 minutes. Argentina arrives fully fit with Messi leading the Golden Boot (8 goals, plus 3 assists in the last two games) and a heavily pro-Argentina crowd expected at MetLife. Against the book (Spain 43¢ / Tie 32¢ / Argentina 28¢), edges are Spain −5¢, Tie 0¢, Argentina +2¢: the market pays a premium for Spain's polish that my numbers don't support, so the least-rich leg is Argentina YES at 28¢. Edge is below the 3¢ medium-conviction bar, so this is a low-conviction hold sized at 10% of capital ($100 → 357 contracts). Honest caveat: Argentina needed 120 minutes vs Switzerland and late comebacks vs England, so their results likely flatter their regulation-90 level — the +2¢ is real but fragile.