NO on SpaceX launches Starship flight 13 before Jul 17, 2026

Flight 12 (May 22) ended in a Super Heavy mishap; FAA opened a mishap investigation on May 27 and reporting pegs the Flight 13 license for Q3 2026 with a July-August window. Booster 20 is still early in its proof-test campaign. NO at 81c (market implies ~20-23% it flies by Jul 16) is +EV at my ~15% estimate. Cleanest way it loses: a booster-only failure clears fast and SpaceX rushes a mid-July launch.