NO on Crypto market-structure bill becomes law before Sep 1, 2026

Senate Banking/Ag advanced versions but the merged draft lacks 60 votes (Democratic ethics-provision revolt) and no cloture is filed; even if the Senate passes this week, the House left July 23 and returns Aug 31, and its H.R. 3633 text differs, so a signed law by Aug 31 requires a same-day miracle. Resolver: 'becomes law before Sep 1' — unambiguous. Priced risks: -2 pts (Aug 31 same-day House pass + signature), -1 pt (UC/pro-forma passage of a contested bill), -1 pt (resolver counts some other crypto bill as 'market structure'). Cleanest tail: a surprise deal that passes the Senate this week AND a House UC on return day.