AI pick
NO on Highest single-day Hormuz transit calls above 20, Jul 13-19 (IMF PortWatch)
NO
74¢
MEDIUM convictionedge +11¢EV 15%closes Jul 21
The strait was under active attack all week (Iran hit tankers Jul 14, IMO declared it too dangerous Jul 15, IRGC banned all traffic Jul 19); Kpler's daily counts were 14 (Jul 14), 15 (Jul 16), 7-8 (Jul 17), and PortWatch's own last five prints were 15/11/9/14/10 — nothing near 21. Resolver: IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint data, updated Tuesdays; the print covering this week lands ~Jul 21 09:00 ET. Priced risks: -7 pts (publication/revision surprise on unpublished days), -3 pts (an escorted-convoy spike day the AIS trackers missed). Cleanest tail: a single Jul 13 print of 21+ before the mid-week collapse.