YES on Will Trump order tariffs in Jul 2026?

Resolver: rules pay YES on 'any executive action imposing new or increased tariffs on any country' with a specified effective date, in Jul 2026. The signed presidential memorandum (FR doc 2026-14654) satisfies BOTH readings of 'in Jul 2026' — signed Jul 15 AND effective Jul 22 — and the global Section 301 forced-labor action (final expected before the Jul 24 Section 122 sunset) is a second independent path. Priced risks: -3 pts resolver demands a literal executive order rather than a memorandum, -2 pts unknown-unknowns given the 94-to-75 intraday wobble. Cleanest tail: Kalshi reads 'executive action' narrowly as EO-only.