NO on Crypto market-structure bill becomes law before Sep 1, 2026?

As of Jul 17 the merged CLARITY text has no Democratic co-sponsors and needs 60 votes; two cloture sequences consume most of the ~2.5 remaining Senate weeks before the ~Aug 7 recess, and the House (gone until Aug 31, back Aug 31-Sep 3) would then have to pass the Senate text and get a signature by Aug 31. Resolver: 'a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Sep 1' — clean statutory test. Priced risks: -2 pts a surprise deal plus a compressed House same-day vote on Aug 31. Cleanest tail: Thune prioritizes it, 7+ Democrats flip within two weeks, and the House delays recess.