AI pick
NO on Trump RCP approval 40.8-41.0 on Jul 24?
NO
70¢
MEDIUM convictionedge +9¢EV 13%closes Jul 24
Daily RCP history shows the average at or above 41.0 every day since Jul 11 (41.2 on Jul 20), with the oldest polls in the 14-poll window (Quinnipiac 38, FT 36) due to roll out and push it higher. Resolver: RCP displayed average at 11:00 AM ET Jul 24, mechanical snapshot. Priced risks: -3 pts a single shock poll (one 37-38 print can drag the average ~0.2) plus RCP's intraday update-timing quirks. Cleanest tail: one bad new poll lands Thursday night and parks the average at exactly 40.9.