YES on AAA average gas price above $4.16 on Jul 31, 2026

Crude +$17/bbl since early July vs retail +23c means pass-through alone likely clears $4.16 even if crude freezes; retail falls slowly (rockets-and-feathers). Cleanest loss: an immediate ceasefire crashes Brent ~$15 within days and retail stalls. Resolver: AAA daily national average snapshot Jul 31; priced risks: -1 pt (publication quirk).