NO on Fed hikes rates by 25bps at the July 29, 2026 meeting

June CPI -0.4% MoM / PPI -0.3% collapsed hike odds and Warsh said 'not yet'; blackout blocks telegraphing and the modern Fed does not surprise-hike; hawk dissenters (Logan, Hammack) are regional presidents without Board majority. Cleanest loss: Warsh delivers an un-telegraphed credibility hike into the oil shock. Resolver: FOMC statement target range Jul 29, mechanical; priced risks: -1 pt procedural.