Kalmari
AI pick

YES on More than 40 Hormuz transit calls Jul 20-26 (IMF PortWatch)?

YES 77¢
HIGH convictionedge +8¢EV 11%closes Jul 28
IMF PortWatch (the named resolver) printed 15,11,9,10,6,9,11,12,10,11,17,15 for Jul 8-19 - trailing week sum 85, floor day 6, and 3 of the 7 counting days already elapsed under that regime. Resolver: IMF PortWatch daily transit calls summed Jul 20-26; priced risks: -2 pts (retroactive revisions), -1 pt (Kalshi reads a different PortWatch surface), -1 pt (publication lag pushes settlement into exchange discretion). Cleanest loss: an immediate unprecedented total-halt week averaging under 5.9/day.
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