NO on June FOMC: No change AND 0 dissents

Same fractured-committee evidence as the dissent leg: a unanimous hold needs even serial dissenter Miran to fall in line. NO also pays on any surprise cut. Fair P(unanimous hold) ~38% -> NO fair ~62c vs 42c paid. Correlated with the dissent pick (same thesis); cleanest tail risk: Warsh unifies the committee for a unanimous hold.