YES on San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins: Moneyline — Miami Marlins

Committed pre-price: SD 45% / MIA 55%. Eury Pérez (3.53 ERA, 104 K, last out 6 scoreless with 9 K) is a clear step up on JP Sears, a 4.38-ERA depth lefty recalled to cover the injured Lucas Giolito and homer-prone across 2025, and Miami adds home field in a closed dome. What holds the number down to 55 is that Miami has lost ten straight scoring roughly 2.6 runs a game, Pérez carries a post-injury pitch cap that means an early multi-arm bridge, and San Diego has Mason Miller fresh after an 11-pitch save. The book is 54/55 Miami and 44/46 San Diego, so my edges are exactly 0c on Miami and -1c on San Diego. I take Miami at 55 as a zero-edge forced entry at minimum size. Depth on the Miami leg is thin at 401 contracts at the ask — fine for 36 contracts, not for size. Anchor note: a -136 Miami price appeared in research but it was tied to Friday's opener.