YES on Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Moneyline — Chicago Cubs

Committed pre-price: CHC 47% / PIT 53%. Skenes is the best single starter on the slate — 2.45 ERA with 19 strikeouts over his last three, at home on extra rest — and I gave Pittsburgh the nod because of it. But three things stop that from being a big number: the Cubs are 57-45 to Pittsburgh's 53-50 and hold the NL's top wild card, Imanaga has a 0.35 ERA and 0.73 WHIP across 26 career innings against these Pirates with a 2.31 ERA over his last seven starts, and Pittsburgh's bullpen ranks 22nd at 4.42 with Evan Sisk out and Gregory Soto shaky in the ninth. Pittsburgh's lineup is also lefty-heavy and 9-20 against left-handed starters. Book is 44/45 on the Cubs and 54/56 on Pittsburgh, so buying the Cubs at 45 gives +2c while Pittsburgh at 56 is -3c. Anchor note: OddsShark implied about PIT 55% / CHC 45%, essentially my number, so there is not much disagreement here — just a small vig-relative overlay on the dog. This is also the thinnest-volume game on the slate.