YES on Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles: Moneyline — Baltimore Orioles

Committed pre-price: ATL 47% / BAL 53%. Brandon Young is 8-2 with a 3.25 ERA and Baltimore is 13-3 when he starts; Bryce Elder has split his season in half, with a 1.97 ERA over his first eleven starts and then a 7.65 ERA with twelve homers allowed over his last eight. Baltimore is 8-2 in its last ten. Two things keep this near a coin flip: Atlanta is 60-42 and leads the NL East while Baltimore is 50-53, and the Orioles' bullpen is missing both Felix Bautista and Ryan Helsley with Kittredge and Wells splitting the ninth unconvincingly. Baltimore is also without both primary catchers, Rutschman and Basallo. Book is 49/50 Baltimore, so +3c at the ask versus -4c on Atlanta. Anchor note: OddsShark opened this a pick'em at -108 both ways and the Dimers model had Baltimore 50.8% — my 53 is modestly more Orioles than either, which is where the edge comes from.