YES on Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Moneyline — Cincinnati Reds

Committed pre-price: CIN 52% / STL 48%. This is one of only two games where I take a road favourite. Hunter Greene has a 6.06 ERA since returning from March elbow surgery but a 3.23 FIP and 26 strikeouts to 5 walks in 16.1 innings — the ugly ERA is almost entirely his 8-run first start back, and he has since gone 7 innings shutout with 12 K and 6 innings with 3 earned. Andre Pallante is a 4.02-ERA contact-manager at 6.4 K/9 who rarely goes past five and a half, and St. Louis is the worst-scoring home offence in the league at roughly 3.7 runs a game. Offsetting that: Busch home field, the Cardinals' better record at 52-50 versus 47-54, Greene's post-surgery pitch cap around 85-95, and a Reds pen missing Lodolo and Santillan. St. Louis is also short — Svanson threw 37 pitches Thursday, Graceffo 30, and lefty JoJo Romero is out with appendicitis. Book is 47/48 Cincinnati, so buying at 48 is +4c against -5c on St. Louis. No odds anchor was retrievable, so this is a clean independent disagreement with the market's slight home lean.