AI pick
NO on Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60 before Sep 1 (IMF PortWatch)
NO
92¢
HIGH convictionedge +3¢EV 3%closes Sep 1
PortWatch 7dMA is 12.1 as of Jul 19; even the June deal-implementation spike peaked at 51/day (7dMA 34), and fresh tanker attacks Jul 20 point down, not up. Cleanest tail: a full reopening plus a queue-flush of 355 stranded vessels producing a week of above-normal transits before Sep 1 — priced at -4 pts.