NO on Trump RCP approval below 40.2 at 11:00 ET Jul 31

Daily RCP history shows a 40.3-41.2 band all month, typical 4-day move 0.2 (90th pct 0.5), and the oldest poll in the window is the low outlier whose exit mechanically adds ~+0.5. Cleanest tail: a coordinated string of sub-39 gold-standard prints on Iran war fatigue in the final 3 days.