NO on Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60/day before Sep 1, 2026?

PortWatch daily prints are 6-17/day and even the best ceasefire period peaked at a ~32/day 7-day average - barely half the 60 threshold. Four ceasefires have collapsed, both blockades remain, and Lloyd's Market Association says normalization takes 'months' after any deal. Cleanest tail risk: a sudden comprehensive deal plus a PortWatch data artifact spiking the average. Resolver: IMF PortWatch 7-day MA, any print before Sep 1; priced risks: -2 pts (data revision/artifact).