NO on Trump RCP approval average below 40.2 at 11AM ET Jul 31?

RCP's own daily series shows mean absolute daily moves of 0.11 pts with a 180-day max of 0.6; falling 0.7+ by Jul 31 would be unprecedented, and the most likely poll-window turnover (Pew 34% dropping) is mechanically upward. Cleanest tail risk: a shock news event dumping several instant polls at 37-38% before Friday 11AM. Resolver: RealClearPolitics average snapshot 11:00 AM ET Jul 31; priced risks: -1 pt (methodology/window turnover), -1 pt (shock-poll cluster).