NO on Pete Hegseth out as SecDef before Sep 1, 2026?

No July 2026 reporting of Trump wavering, successor shortlists, or an investigation at a decision point; Trump's support has consistently insulated him through earlier scandals. Cleanest tail risk: an abrupt Trump firing in a volatile administration, which cannot be ruled out on evidence. Resolver: formal permanent departure before Sep 1 (early-close market); priced risks: -1 pt (abrupt-firing tail).