Kalmari
AI pick

YES on More than 50 Hormuz transit calls Jul 27 - Aug 2 (IMF PortWatch)?

YES 72¢
MEDIUM convictionedge +13¢EV 18%closes Aug 4
The resolver's own published data (not a third-party tracker) shows two consecutive weekly sums of 77 and ~73 with no daily print below 9 since Jul 12, and no new escalation headline since the mid-July blockade tightening that is already in that baseline. The single cleanest way to lose: a fresh closure/escalation in the unpublished Jul 27-Aug 2 window cuts transits below ~7/day - priced at -8 pts, and the reason this is sized MEDIUM, small, and entered only via a resting limit at 72 (top-of-book is 2 lots at 74; do not pay up through the thin book). Resolver: IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint series, sum of transit calls Jul 27-Aug 2, ~7-day publication lag; priced risks: -8 pts (new escalation in unpublished days), -3 pts (PortWatch revision/methodology), -1 pt (data outage forcing resolver discretion).
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