YES on More than 15 SpaceX launches in June 2026 (>=16)

9 launches June 1-19 plus >=4 already manifested for June 20-30 imply a 0.47-0.56/day run-rate; >=16 needs 7 more in 11 days, which a Poisson on the honest rate puts near 27% (haircut to ~21%) versus the market's 8.5%. Cleanest tail risk: a Falcon 9 anomaly/FAA stand-down in the next 11 days caps the count near 14 and sends this to zero.