YES on More than 16 SpaceX launches in June 2026 (>=17)

Same cadence thesis one launch further out (>=17 needs 8 more in 11 days). A Poisson on the honest full-June rate puts this near 16%; haircut to ~12% versus the market's 3.5%. Leans hardest on the cadence model rather than the named manifest, so sized small; first to die in any launch slowdown.