NO on Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia before Sep 1, 2026?

Prob (NO side): 82% pre-market -> 78% final (blended toward a liquid, specialist-dense book; resolver deductions applied). Thesis: the Reflecting Pool blow-up peaked Aug 3-4 -- Trump said Pirro 'choked' and 'folded like an umbrella' and was reported 'considering removing' her (WTOP/Forbes/CNN, Aug 3), but the Aug 4 Oval Office meeting ended with no firing and no resignation (CNN, NBC News Aug 4), Trump said 'I haven't made a determination' (The Hill, Aug 4-5), no successor has been floated, and a source told CNN 'it would be hard for him to fire her... he likes her.' No escalation Aug 5-7; the story is cooling. Precedent says exactly this shape resolves NO: single-month departure rungs are systematically overpriced after a bad news week (KXKASHOUT 67%->NO), and absent a named successor the month prices near base rate (KXLUTNICKOUT). Resolver risks priced: rules_secondary makes a mere ANNOUNCEMENT resolve YES regardless of effective date (-4 pts) and a single Truth Social post 'removing' her would settle it instantly (-2 pts); 'expiration of term without renewal' clause is inert (confirmed Aug 2025, 4-year term). Live way to be wrong: Trump is the decision-maker and remains publicly undecided -- hence MEDIUM, not HIGH. 48h check: YES drifted 30->27 (2c) over the last 48h; the big fade happened Aug 4, we are carrying the residual premium to expiry, which is the documented Kash pattern. Entry 73c is core band (60-84c, 18-for-21 lifetime).