NO on Will every country ranked in the FIFA top 10 (at issuance) reach the knockout stage?

'All ten' top-10 teams advancing is a compounding-probability outcome. Even at generous 93% per-team advance rates, P(all ten) ~ 0.93^10 ~ 48%. Casual bettors anchor on individual team odds and underweight the multiplication. Post-Matchday 1, five top-10 teams (Spain, Brazil, Netherlands, Belgium, Morocco) dropped points, and Brazil/Morocco share Group C with Scotland — a realistic path for one top-10 team to miss the knockout round. Conviction Medium.