NO on Hormuz 7-day avg transit calls above 60 before Oct 1, 2026 (IMF PortWatch)

PortWatch printed 1 transit on Aug 9 vs a ~73/day baseline; the June ceasefire collapsed, the blockade was reimposed in July, and the IRGC fired warning shots as recently as Aug 12. Even the best ceasefire window (July) peaked at 28 transits/day — less than half the sustained rate needed. Resolver: IMF PortWatch 7-day MA, first occurrence >60 before Oct 1; priced risks: -1 pt (PortWatch revision noise), -1 pt (methodology/counting change). Cleanest tail: a rapid September grand bargain with immediate full reopening.