NO on When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026

Prob: 88% pre-market -> 86% final (blended toward a liquid book at ~80 NO). Resolution is strictly mechanical: YES requires SEC declaring the S-1 effective, a priced offering, or an exchange-assigned ticker before Oct 1 03:59Z. Precedent: KXIPOANTHROPIC-DATE-26JUL01 resolved NO — the Jun 1 confidential draft S-1 announcement satisfied none of the three triggers and headline YES-buyers were wrong within 24h; KXIPO-26-SPACEX resolved YES only at effectiveness/pricing (Jun 11-12), not at the Jun 4 roadshow ticker disclosure. Verified on EDGAR today (Aug 18): no public S-1 flip exists. SEC guidance requires the public flip >=15 days before roadshow; SpaceX, the fastest mega-IPO comp, still took ~4 weeks flip-to-pricing — so any pre-Oct-1 trigger needs a flip by ~Sep 8 plus a maximally fast roadshow with zero slippage. Latest primary-ish timeline data points the other way: TradingView IPO calendar lists a planned offer date of Oct 23, 2026; futuresearch.ai's median listing forecast moved OUT to Nov 30 (Aug 6 update); Forbes (Aug 13) says October. The Aug 9-14 YES spike (15c -> 32c, 22.7k contracts Aug 11) had no identifiable catalyst and is decaying (21c close Aug 18) — the same series-specific headline-flow overpricing the precedent store documents. Resolver risk deductions: -3 for a loose 'ticker assigned' reading if the public flip discloses an intended symbol (bounded by the SpaceX precedent, where ticker disclosure did not settle the market). 48h check: YES drifted 25c -> 21c, decay not news, entry still below model. Each flip-less day mechanically decays YES further.